RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

In 2023, Türkiye succeeded in being one of the countries to grow its exports despite contracted global trade, and exports was registered at its historic high at USD 255.8 billion as of the end of the year. Important steps were taken in the reporting period for penetrating new markets and acquiring additional share in existing markets. This success attained in exports pointed at the solid production and exportation capacity of Türkiye.

Among the factors that negatively affected Türkiye’s exports, volatilities in global economy and escalated freight costs gain the top ranks. Fluctuations in raw material prices and supply chain interruptions restrained exports in some sectors, and customs duties and trade barriers in certain countries complicated access to products.

Gaining the forefront on chapter basis was the exportation of motor vehicles, furnaces and machinery, mineral fuels and mineral oils. In terms of market, on the other hand, the European Union sustained its title as the largest export market whereas USA and the Middle East took place among other major markets.

The Medium Term Plan forecasts 2024 exports at USD 267 billion. Activities aimed at penetrating new markets, diversifying exports and increasing added value in production continue uninterruptedly to help our country reach this target.

The main risk elements in 2024 include geopolitical tensions anticipated to keep affecting global trade negatively, continued stagnation of demand at Türkiye’s partners in export, globally elevated customs duties and trade barriers. While these risks exist, our country’s skilled workforce, geographical location, growing production capacity and government incentives present significant opportunities for exports. Türkiye has the means to further increase its exports and achieve a more important position in global trade provided that the risks are managed proactively and provided further that necessary steps are taken.

The volatility in CBRT-sourced loans was striven to be compensated with loans sourced from Türk Eximbank and international funds.

Türk Eximbank, the capital of which is wholly owned by the Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance, does not have any subsidiaries that it controls directly or indirectly. Therefore, the Bank is not included in any risk group.

At Türk Eximbank, risk management activities are carried out in accordance with the Regulation on the Internal Systems of Banks and Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment and other regulations and the BRSA Good Practice Guidelines. In this context, it is targeted to establish the risk culture across the entire Bank, and to improve the risk management function as close as possible to good practices by constantly bettering the human resource and the system.

The effect of potential default by companies that will presumably fail to comply with sustainability policies in terms of climate-related and environmental and social risks upon capital adequacy is measured using stress testing/scenario analysis at Türk Eximbank. Additionally, international requirements (BIS/Climate-related financial risk measurement methodologies etc.) are followed and work is underway to incorporate sustainability-themed risks within Structural Block 1 and Structural Block 2 risks. Studies on environmental, social and climate-related risks are detailed in the ICAAP Report and Risk Management Implementation Principles.

Within the context of the European Green Deal and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, selected exporters engaged in high-risk sectors were subjected to climate and green deal risk calculations, and risks and opportunities were evaluated accordingly.

On the other hand, that the tax payment system is still some time away is considered as an opportunity for businesses to make their preparations in this regard. Being the bank of exporters, Türk Eximbank will continue to keep exporters informed about the topic and to provide guidance for taking measures in relation to the significant costs of the matter.